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Leading Indicators, June 2010, published July 16
The composite leading indicator was 242.5 in June, up 1.0% from May. It was the 13th consecutive monthly gain.
Growth again was concentrated in the manufacturing sector. Household spending and the stock market continued to moderate, after leading the initial upturn in mid-2009. The housing index continued to retreat, off 1.9% after a 1.7% decline in May. These were the first two monthly decreases after a period of growth that began in April 2009. Existing home sales led the drop, after peaking in January. Housing starts slowed, as lower new house sales were reflected in an increase in unsold units. Consumer demand for big-ticket durable goods was mixed. Despite the slowdown in housing, furniture and appliance sales continued to strengthen, up 0.5% from May at $3.0 billion. Demand for other durable goods, notably for autos, fell 0.5% from May to $9.9 billion. The U.S. Leading Indicator was up 0.5% from May, continuing a string of 13 straight monthly gains. New orders for durable goods rose 2.3% from May for a fifth consecutive monthly increase. Demand was led by capital goods, such as aerospace and machinery. The ratio of shipments to inventories posted an eleventh straight gain (+0.03%). For the first time in ten months, all of the increase originated in higher sales as inventories stopped falling. The average workweek recorded its third straight large increase, although this has not yet been reflected in more factory jobs. An upturn in business spending resulted in more jobs in business services. The Toronto stock market was up 0.3% at 11,787 in June over May after being unchanged from April to May. Previously, the S&P/TSX had been trending up for 13 straight months. |
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